U.S. stocks finished modestly higher on Thursday, October 1, 2026, the first session of the fourth quarter, recovering from early weakness as Treasury yields pulled back from their highest levels in more than two decades. The S&P 500 gained 0.19% while the Dow and Nasdaq ended close to unchanged. The stock market today on October 1 was defined by a tug of war between a sharp rise in oil prices and easing pressure in the bond market.

Stock Market Today: A Narrow Recovery

The S&P 500 added 0.19% to close at 7,666.45, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 20.51 points, or 0.04%, to 50,926.56. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.04% to 26,871.60. Equities had traded lower earlier in the session before buyers returned as long-dated yields eased, leaving the three benchmarks with small gains on the opening day of October. The tight closing range suggested investors were reluctant to take a firm view while interest rates and energy prices were moving sharply in opposite directions, and it kept the major indices near their recent levels as the new quarter began, with attention now turning to how long yields and crude can stay elevated.

Treasury Yields Retreat From Two-Decade Highs

The bond market set the tone for the session. The 10-year Treasury yield touched an intraday high of 5.344%, its highest level since 2002, before easing about 5 basis points to 5.243%. The 30-year yield also reached a 24-year high during the day and then fell more than 2 basis points to 5.613%. Elevated oil prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East, together with strong demand for capital linked to artificial intelligence investment, have led investors to price in the possibility of further tightening from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh.

Oil Jumps and ISM Prices Point to Firm Inflation Pressure

Brent crude rose 4.4% to settle at $102.31 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate gained 2.7% to $92.87, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the United States plans to send a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East along with 9,000 to 10,000 additional troops. Washington and Tehran have yet to agree a lasting deal that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The ISM manufacturing prices index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1 in August, while the headline PMI was 54.5, against 55.0 expected, a ninth straight month of expansion.

Labor Data and Earnings Round Out the Day

Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 197,000 in the week ended September 26, below the 200,000 forecast in a Bloomberg survey, and the lowest reading since mid-July. In corporate news, Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter report showed revenue of $54.23 billion and adjusted earnings of $33.42 per share, with guidance for about $61.5 billion of revenue in the next quarter. After the close, Nike reported earnings of $0.48 per share on revenue of $11.21 billion, down 4%, as sales in Greater China fell 26%. Resilient labor data, firm input costs and higher oil leave rate expectations the central market variable.

Daily market analysis by BCM Markets.