Introduction
On April 19, 2025, copper prices suffered a sharp decline, as concerns over slowing Chinese demand rattled global commodity markets. With China being the world’s largest consumer of copper, weaker-than-expected economic data triggered a notable sell-off across the metals sector, dragging prices and related equities lower.
Background
Copper, often referred to as “Dr. Copper” for its ability to reflect global economic trends, had recently been buoyed by optimism surrounding green energy investments and global infrastructure projects. Earlier in 2025, prices reached a two-year high of $4.34 per pound. However, persistent fragility in China’s property market and industrial sectors has increasingly weighed on sentiment.
Expectations had been building that Beijing would implement substantial stimulus to reinvigorate growth. Yet, the latest data suggested that government efforts have so far failed to reverse the downturn, particularly in critical sectors like construction and manufacturing where copper demand is most significant.
Today’s Market Reaction
Copper futures on the COMEX fell by 2.6% to settle at $4.09 per pound, marking the steepest daily drop since early March.
Industrial metals broadly retreated:
- LME Copper 3M Forward: down 2.4% to $8,980 per metric ton
- Shanghai Futures Exchange Copper: off 2.1% to 69,800 yuan per ton
Mining equities were heavily impacted:
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): ↓ 5.1% to $46.37
- Southern Copper (SCCO): ↓ 4.4% to $78.55
- BHP Group (BHP): ↓ 3.8% to $59.12
Broader commodities and equity markets reflected a risk-off mood, with the MSCI World Metals and Mining Index dropping 2.7% and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbing 0.5% to 104.32.
Analysis
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China reported March industrial output growth of just 3.1% year-over-year, significantly below the consensus forecast of 4.5%. More alarmingly, property investment slumped by 7.8%, exacerbating fears of a prolonged real estate downturn.
Rising copper inventories also reinforced bearish sentiment:
- LME Warehouse Stocks: up 4.2% week-over-week
- SHFE Warehouse Stocks: up 11.5% over the past two weeks
Supply-side disruptions in major producing countries like Peru and Chile, which previously underpinned bullish bets, are being overshadowed by clear signs of weakening demand.
Goldman Sachs downgraded its 2025 China GDP growth forecast from 5.2% to 4.8%, citing “entrenched weakness in property and industrial activity” as major headwinds.
Short-Term Outlook
Unless China launches a fresh wave of robust stimulus measures, copper may face further downside pressure. Analysts now see $4.00 per pound as a critical psychological support level. A decisive break below could lead to a test of $3.85 in coming weeks.
Conversely, any credible policy response aimed at stabilizing real estate or infrastructure investment could quickly rekindle demand optimism.
Conclusion
Copper’s pullback on April 19 serves as a stark reminder of China’s dominant role in shaping global commodity markets. While long-term fundamentals tied to decarbonization and electrification remain intact, the immediate outlook hinges on Beijing’s ability to restore economic momentum.
Investors should stay cautious in the short term, keeping an eye on upcoming Chinese policy announcements and global PMI releases that could further influence copper’s trajectory.
